Академическое издательство «Гео»

Key words: East-Asian plant species, plants distribution, climatic and biotic factors, climate change, climate scenarios.



Rastitel'nyj Mir Aziatskoj Rossii (Plant Life of Asian Russia), 2015, № 3, p. 30-35

Spatial modeling of east-asian plant species distribution: current condition and future dynamic under climatic change

D.V. Sandanov, B.B. Naidanov

Institute of General and Experimental Biology, SB RAS,
670047, Ulan-Ude, Sakhyanovoi str., 6, Republic of Buryatia, e-mail: denis.sandanov@gmail.com

Features of distribution of model East-Asian species Astragalus membranaceus, Gueldenstaedtia verna, Sсutellaria baicalensis, Sophora flavescens have been studied. Prediction maps for each species under study have been composed. Modeling with using Maxent approach revealed that the spatial distribution of studied species is influenced by the complex of factors connected with mean parameters of temperature. Prediction maps for modeled climate change scenario showed the individual response for each species. Generally, obtained results didn’t reveal the potential decrease of East-Asian species distribution according to moderate climate scenario. Scenario with high increasing of atmospheric CO2 concentrations showed the possible decreasing of plant distribution.

Key words: East-Asian plant species, plants distribution, climatic and biotic factors, climate change, climate scenarios.
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